ORSB – ANGOLA COUNTRY STRATEGY PAPER 2011 - 2015
unlikely
scenario
of
oil
prices
continuously below US$ 50 per barrel
for the next 5 years.
to the freeze on contracting new loans
during 2009’s crisis. During June’s 2010
IMF’s SBA program review, the IMF
agreed to an increase of new external
non-concessional borrowings from US$
2 to US$ 6 billion in order to
accommodate
ongoing
projects
financing before existing framework
agreements expire. In the medium-term,
the contracting of new external debt
should decrease. The government’s
financing needs will decline as basic
infrastructure needs are addressed and
with an expected improvement in the
fiscal position. Furthermore, future
infrastructure is likely to be co-financed
by the private sector through PPP’s.
Governance and Transparency
Figure 3 - Governance Indicators
Source: AfDB Statistics Department 2009
2.1.12 Angola
has
been
facing
serious challenges with regard to
good governance, although there are
some positive signals (see figure 3).
There are improvements in civil society
access to information on public affairs
and on accountability of the executive:
Information on government policies,
budget, other fiscal data and regular
macro-economic information are now
regularly published in the Ministry of
Finance and the BNA websites.
Because of the IMF’s SBA, stateowned-companies and most noticeably
the national oil company SONANGOL
now undertake and disclose audits
compliant with international accounting
norms. However, Angola is still reluctant
to adhere to the Extractive Industries
Transparency Initiative. The 2010
constitution reinforced Parliament’s
legislative
control
and
oversight
functions.
It
also
reaffirms
the
independence of Courts. In spite of
capacity constraints, the Court of
Auditors undertook in 2009 21 audits
and
21
surveys
on
different
administrative municipalities, hospitals,
higher education institutes, public
enterprises and consulates, all of which
are accessible on the Court’s website.
Box 2: Angola Credit Rating
Agency
S&P
Fitch
Moody’s
Rating
B+
B+
B1
Outlook
Stable
Positive
Neutral
Further diversification of its financing
channels should come through the
newly attained credit ratings from the
global
rating
agencies
granting
structured regular access to the financial
markets. (see box 2) IMF’s Debt
Sustainability Analysis (2010) indicates
that, with the revised debt ceiling, the
external debt-to-GDP ratio will remain
broadly stable at around 20 percent (see
table 3).
Current Accnt.
15.9
7.6
-5.2
2.7
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
Table 3 - External Sector Position
2.2
3.1
External Debt*
7.4
9.6
14.9 18.5 21.5
Ext. Debt-to12.5 11.4 21.1 22.2 22.6
GDP
Debt Service9.5
4.3
14.4
9.4
10.0
to-net-export
ratio
Values in % of GDP, *External Debt in USD billions.
Source: IMF September 2010 (2009-12 Projected)
22.7
21.4
9.9
While the Angolan economy remains
vulnerable to a shock in oil prices, debt
levels will only become critical in an
6