ORSB – ANGOLA COUNTRY STRATEGY PAPER 2011 - 2015
position. The SBA reform agenda aimed
at addressing structural issues (See
annex 5) in order to promote mediumterm fiscal soundness and sustainable
long-term non-oil sector growth.
continued budgetary allocation of 30
percent to social areas, fostering public
administration growth and increasing
public services provision. Non-oil fiscal
deficit is expected to resume a
downward trend from the current -25.8
percent to -19 percent in 2015.
2.1.8 Macroeconomic perspectives
are positive, although reforms should
keep pace. Resurgence in global oil
demand has bolstered oil production
and exports have steadily gained pace.
The IMF program, the tightening of
monetary and fiscal policies and the
recent revenue increase have begun to
show results. Angola in 2010 is
resuming its earlier growth path and is
expected to achieve 5.9 percent of GDP
. Other indicators are also improving:
• Gross
Foreign
Reserves
are
expected to reach US$ 15.8 billion in
2010 (roughly 3.5 mo7) and US$ 26.8
billion in 2015
• The Kwanza recovered slightly in
2010 stabilizing broadly around Aon
91:1 US$. Spread to the parallel
market has reduced to nearly 5
percent.
• Inflation, until early 2010 resiliently
around 14 percent, started a
downward trend and should reach 13
and 9.5 percent in 2010 and 2011
respectively and 6 percent in 2015.
• External debt-to-GDP is relatively low
at 21 percent and overall public debtto-GDP at 41.4 percent.
2.1.10 The
ambitious
post-war
reconstruction program requires
extensive financing, mobilized mostly
through foreign bilateral credit lines.
Despite budgetary tightening, capital
spending in 2010 had a real increase of
14 percent, targeted mainly to critical
infrastructure development. With a
devastated post-war infrastructure, (see
§2.3.1) the GoA estimates that it will
need US$ 9billion per annum to finance
its national reconstruction program.
Long-term domestic financing has been
constrained by insufficiently attractive
interest rates and an inappropriate
regulatory environment that limits the
domestic banking sector to take
governmental debt. The majority of the
reconstruction program has therefore
been financed through foreign credit (see
Table 2), including multi-billion dollar oilbacked credit lines settled with Brazil
and China until 2004.
Table 2 - Recent Foreign Credit Lines
Foreign Credit Lines Signed in 2009/10
Goldman Sachs LLC
China Development Bank
Ind. & Com. Bank China
China Eximbank
Brazil
Portugal Cosec (extension)
2.1.9 The
continuation
of
the
reforms should consolidate the fiscal
position during the next 5 years. A
return to a fiscal surplus of 3.1 percent
is expected in 2010. The country intends
to progressively increase the fiscal
model sustainability to cope with the
strong public investment and the
300
1,500
2,500
6,000
500
500
Source: BNA (millions of US dollars)
Note: Signed credit lines do not imply disbursement.
2.1.11 Despite the 2009 terms of trade
shock and the record external
borrowing in 2010, debt levels remain
sustainable and credit risk moderate.
2010 will register new external
borrowings at record values mostly due
7 MO – Months of imports of goods and services are calculated using
Usable Reserves = GFR – illiquid assets, 3.5mo refers to “usable foreign
currency reserves” expected to reach US$ 11.bn in 2010, source IMF.
5