STAATSKOERANT, 24 JANUARIE 2014
No. 37261
19
the current regulatory environment, BMI-T forecasts the fixed and fixed wireless
connection rate to decline by2.4%, whereas mobile connections are expected to grow
In
by6.2%. The continued reduction in fixed-line penetration, the saturating mobile market and
the drop in data prices due to increased competition, as well as the sustained economic
downturn have had an effect on growth in the past few years.
Telecoms sector revenue grew from R8.2bn in 1993 to R157bn in 2012 and is expected to
grow to R187bn in 2016. In this scenario, the Compounded Average Growth Rate (CAGR) is
expected to be 4.6% from 2010 to 2016, with the Public Switched Telephone Network
(PSTN) fixed-line and value-added services growing at only 1.1% as opposed to the mobile
cellular growth of 5.9%.
Telecom......:,
.service
Total PSTN fixed Ii! ne and VAS
.,',iternative voice.
ser-vices
Totai
2
4ftm)
CAGR
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
'44 S6S
203 5s.8
?10515
116 003
1227'-'
131 -:L83
138 069.
..q%
2 006
41 00
42 576
42 817
43 561
44 291
44 342
1.1%
398
3 679
3 568
3 548
S. 6.884
S 957
4 283
3.1%
141 272
149 127
156 659
171 044
179 331
186 694
4.6%
2010
ai mobile
cellular serdices
2010
ue
Source, SMI-T, Zola ..4iternative, voce serv,ses ;Traditional LCR,
162 368
P, Hybrid
11 - 16
LCR -be wen ana
Source: BMI-T, 2013. Alternative voice services (Traditional LCR, VolP, Hybrid VolP / LCR)
base scenario
Despite the emergence of a sophisticated telecommunications market in South Africa in the
democratic era, the central policy issue that has not been adequately addressed is that of
achieving affordable access to reliable and robust communications infrastructure and
services. Various research studies show that the ICT access gap is growing, particularly
between rural and urban areas, as well as between those with higher and lower incomes.
South Africa has effectively lost its status as continental leader in terms of the global ranking
indices produced by the World Economic Forum and the International Telecommunication
Union.
For instance, the Network Readiness Index (NRI) of the WorldEconomic Forum, 2013,
shows that South Africa currently ranks 70th in the world, out of a total of 144 countries. This
study measures a country's propensity to exploit opportunities offered by ICT, and the
impact of ICT on the competitiveness of nations. South Africa continues to trail behind other
comparator countries such as Chile, Turkey and Poland.
Despite the ICT sector's phenomenal growth in the past two decades, the cost of
communication remains relatively high. According to Gilwald, Moyo & Stork (2013),when
compared with other African countries, mobile and fixed retail prices are in most cases ten
times higher. The table below shows South African prepaid mobile prices in relation to the 10
cheapest countries in Africa, based on the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and
Development (OECD) 2010 prepaid low-user mobile basket (40 calls per month prepaid).
15
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