ORSB – ANGOLA COUNTRY STRATEGY PAPER 2011 - 2015
I.
This indicative figure is expected to
increase in the years ahead depending
on the performance of the country.
INTRODUCTION
1.1
This Country Strategy Paper
(CSP) presents the Bank’s strategy
for engagement in Angola for the
period 2011-2015. It includes the
conclusions of the Country Portfolio
Performance Review1. This CSP builds
on
the
2005-2007
strategy,
subsequently updated until 2009. Its
presentation was largely delayed by
uncertainty concerning Angola’s credit
categorization.
Box 1: Criteria for Category Graduation
Bank Group Credit Policy criteria for Category
C graduation:
1. GNI per capita above IDA operational cut2
off for more than two consecutive years:
Angola’s per capita GNI has been above the cutoff since 2005. The Bank preliminary estimate of
Angola’s gross national income per-capita in
2009 is about US$3,490, over 200 percent
above the threshold.
1.2
This CSP takes into account the
transition framework for graduating and
reversing countries which will be
presented to the Board very shortly, in
fulfillment of Management’s commitment
during the ADF-12 replenishment
discussions to propose a graduation
policy. As agreed in the ADF-12 Report
(ADF/BG/WP/2010/06), one of the
features of the Transition Framework
will be to gradually phase out ADF
resources and phase in ADB resources
during a transition period, the length of
which will be determined on a case-bycase basis according to country
circumstances. This serves to ensure a
smooth transition process.
2. Deemed
creditworthy
for
nonconcessional financing from the IBRD/ADB
FFMA has evaluated Angola against the
Bank’s 8 criteria for individual country
creditworthiness: political risk; external debt
and liquidity; fiscal policy and public debt
burden; balance of payments risks; economic
structure and growth prospects; monetary and
exchange rate policy; financial sector risks; and
corporate sector debt and vulnerabilities. The
country has been found creditworthy.
The WB has deemed the country Credit
Worthy for IBRD non-concessional financing.
Major international rating agencies have
given the country favorable credit ratings
The IMF’s Debt Sustainability Analysis
indicates the external debt-to-GDP ratio will
remain broadly stable at around 20 percent.
1.4
Management
therefore
has
determined that, with effect from
January 1, 2011, Angola is a category C
country, i.e. it is a fully creditworthy
middle-income country, in line with the
criteria laid out in the Bank Group Credit
Policy
(ADB/BD/WP/95/79
and
ADB/BD/WP/98/33). (See box 1) As a
Category-C country, Angola is eligible to
sovereign and non sovereign credit from
the ADB window. Moreover, under the
new Transition Framework, Angola
1.3
Classification of Angola as a
Middle Income Country (MIC). Due to
Angola’s economic performance over
the last 10 years, the country has met
the IDA and ADF per capita income
criterion to be classified as a MIC. The
country has been found creditworthy by
the Bank’s Financial Management
department (FFMA) in accordance with
the Bank Group Credit Policy criteria It
is deemed to sustain initially a nonconcessional sustainable lending limit in
the range of UA 75-175 million per year.
1
2
The operational cut-off for IDA eligibility for FY 2010 (July 2009 to June
2010) was a 2008 per capita GNI of US$1,135, calculated using the Atlas
methodology, and for FY 2011 (July 2010 to June 2011) a 2009 per capita
GNI of US$1,165.
The full CPPR is included in Annex II of this document.
1