ORSB – ANGOLA COUNTRY STRATEGY PAPER 2011 - 2015
as head of the Executive branch. With
this change, Angolan President José
Eduardo dos Santos, who has been in
power since 1979, is expected to remain
in Office at least until 2012.
repeatedly among the 3 fastest-growing
economies in the World. By 2008 the
“home-grown” macroeconomic stability
plan brought inflation down from more
than 70 percent to 13 percent; built-up
reserves to US$ 18 billion, and
contained external debt at around 13
percent of GDP. The abundance of
revenues
supported
a
massive
infrastructure reconstruction plan that
has enabled the non-oil private sector
growth to outperform the oil sector for
the past 5 years (Table 1).
Figure 1- Political Context
2.1.3 Political Institutions and Public
Administration are consolidating. The
2010 Mo Ibrahim Index of African
Governance (IIAG) gave 39.3 out of 100
points, ranking Angola 43rd in the
Continent. Political accountability is
limited
as
most
civil
society
organizations in Angola are incipient,
and their capacity to exert influence on
public policy issues remains limited.
Angola’s
administrative
capacity
requires continued enhancement in
order to ensure the delivery of essential
public services. Risk of social unrest
increased4 during the economic crisis.
The on-going economic recovery has
mitigated this risk and the country
presents itself as politically stable in the
medium-term.
2010*
2009
2008
GDP Growth
20.6
18.6
20.3
13.4
0.7
5.9
(%)
Oil S. Growth
23.1
13.1
20.3
13.3
0.9
5.0
(%)
Non-Oil
14.1
27.5
20.1
14.8
8.2
6.6
Gr.(%)
Inflation (%)
18.5
12.2
11.8
13.2
14.0
13.0
Ext. C.A.**
16.8
25.2
15.9
7.6
-5.2
2.7
Gross
4.1
8.6
11.3
17.8
13.3 17.2
FCR***
Ext. Debt39.9
16.8
12.5
11.4
21.1
22.2
GDP
Fiscal
6.5
6.6
14.2
14.3
-4.4
0.7
Balance**
Source: GoA & IMF 2010; *projected; ** % of GDP; *** in US$bn
2.1.5 An economy overly dependent
on the oil sector and public sector
demand. Angola was Africa’s largest oil
producer in 2010 with an estimated 1.9
million barrels per day. Foreign
multinationals and Angola’s state-owned
oil company, Sonangol, jointly control
extraction. Natural gas production,
estimated to be 4.0 billion cubic meters
in 2009, is according to industry
analysis, capable of reaching 16.3 bcm
by 2014. Proven reserves currently are
estimated at 270 bcm. Overall, the
capital-intensive oil and gas sector is
responsible for 58.9 percent of GDP,
absorbing a large portion of FDI.
Economic Management
Growth and Growth Drivers
2.1.4 The end of the civil war
triggered an economic boom fueled
by increased oil production and
prices. Angola’s growth rates from 2003
to 2008 averaged 17 percent, placing it
4
2007
Source: Source: AfDB Statistics Department using data
from the World Economic Forum, 2009
2006
2005
Table 1 - Key Macroeconomic Trends
IThe EIU Political Instability Index increased from 5.6 to 7.6 (scale 1-10).
3